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As tournament players, perhaps we sometimes feel pressured to make a move earlier in a poker tournament than we’d ideally 4️⃣ like to. Maybe the situation is not perfect, but we’ve noticed the blinds-levels appear to be going up rapidly. Unless 4️⃣ we take the current opportunity, we could easily end up becoming hopelessly short-stacked.

If we had the luxury of never needing 4️⃣ to worry about running out of chips, perhaps we would have passed up on the marginal opportunity that faces us 4️⃣ in favour of a much stronger situation.

Unfortunately, this is not how tournament poker works. We can’t go around playing individual 4️⃣ hands in isolation. We have to seriously consider something that isn't a factor for cash game players - our tournament 4️⃣ life.

The best decision at a tournament table is always going to take into account the effective stacks and the blind-levels. 4️⃣ We are interested in how “healthy” our stack is relative to the blinds, which will help to dictate our strategy. 4️⃣ If only there was a formula we could use to help us calculate this...

Actually, there is – it’s commonly referred 4️⃣ to as “M-ratio” or just “M” for short.

Table of Contents

M Ratio – The Calculation

The idea behind “M” is that it 4️⃣ tells us how many rounds we will last given our current stack size and the size of the blinds/antes.

So let’s 4️⃣ see if we can calculate our M for a simple tournament situation.

Question – We haveR$1,000 in our stack. The SB 4️⃣ isR$10, the BB isR$20, and the antes areR$1 and we are playing 10-handed. What is our M?

We simply need to 4️⃣ add the relevant values to the formula. “Antes” stands for total antes that are played in a round and would, 4️⃣ therefore, be calculated as:

Ante-price * number of players

We are interested in the amount we pay for antes in the entire 4️⃣ orbit, rather than just the value of an individual ante. So in this case, if the value of an individual 4️⃣ ante isR$1 and we have to pay it ten times per orbit, we will pay a total ofR$10 in antes 4️⃣ each orbit.

M =R$1000 / ($10 +R$20 +R$10)

M =R$1000 /R$40

M = 25

An M of 25 essentially means that we can last 4️⃣ another 25 orbits, assuming the structure of the hands remains the same. Which of course, it won’t, because soon the 4️⃣ next blind level will arrive and our M will become considerably reduced. So having an M of 25 in a 4️⃣ regular tournament is not the same as having an M of 25 in an ultra-turbo tournament. The blind structure must 4️⃣ be taken into consideration.

Using M Value to Make Decisions

We now have calculated our value for M, but on its own, 4️⃣ it’s not going to be especially useful. How can we use our value for M to help us define our 4️⃣ strategy in a tournament setting?

In his book Harrington on Hold'em, Dan Harrington provided some rough guidelines for how we should 4️⃣ evaluate and use our value for M. He defined several zones in which the value of M may fall, and 4️⃣ described what our resulting strategic outlook should be.

M is greater than 20 – The Green Zone – With an M 4️⃣ larger than 20 we typically have the luxury to choose whichever style we prefer, whether that be a conservative or 4️⃣ aggressive style. We have enough time to be patient and wait for strong holdings, but we also have the freedom 4️⃣ to dabble with more speculative hands and play aggressively. Taking some losses is not a huge problem at this stage, 4️⃣ and the effective stacks are still deep enough that we can get away with expanding our range in some scenarios.

M 4️⃣ is 10-20 – The Yellow Zone – Now we are starting to feel the time pressure a little bit. We 4️⃣ must start looking for spots to get involved and play hands. Some of the more speculative poker hands we may 4️⃣ have been able to play while in the green zone may now suffer from reduced playability. This reduction is a 4️⃣ result of the smaller effective stacks.

M is 6-10 – The Orange Zone – The pressure tightens here, and we want 4️⃣ to avoid wasting any chips. Cold-calling starts to become risky. Our main focus should be trying to be the first 4️⃣ player involved in the pot, wherever possible. If we are the ones open-raising, we have increased expectation as a result 4️⃣ of additional fold-equity. This is valuable here since every chip counts.

M is 1-6 – The Red Zone – We have 4️⃣ now reached what is known as the push/fold stages of tournament poker. We only have two options at this stage: 4️⃣ Move all-in or fold.

M is less than 1 – Dead Zone – We should avoid this particular zone at all 4️⃣ costs. Nearly everything is dependent on luck at this stage. We want our tournament career to be about skill, not 4️⃣ luck. We should look for a spot where we are first to act and shove all-in, hoping to get lucky. 4️⃣ Players have gone on to win big tournaments even after arriving at the dead-zone, so not all hope is lost. 4️⃣ In most cases, though, our tournament life is over.

Adjustment for Shorthanded Tables

The M calculation works for tables of all sizes. 4️⃣ The number of orbits we have left, won’t change hugely based on the number of players at the table. It 4️⃣ will change slightly, since we will pay a different amount of antes, meaning we will have slightly more orbits remaining 4️⃣ assuming the tables get shorthanded. (Usually the tables will get shorthanded only when approaching the final table. For the most 4️⃣ part, we will be playing tournaments with max capacity).

But is having an M of 5 on a 5-handed table the 4️⃣ same as having an M of 5 on a 10-handed table? Not really. Although the remaining number of orbits won’t 4️⃣ change that much, we will have twice as many opportunities to play hands on the 10-handed table.

To help us deal 4️⃣ with this, we can make use of what is known as effective M, which takes into account the need to 4️⃣ make faster decisions when the tables become shorthanded. We can refer to the standard value of the M calculation as 4️⃣ simple M.

The relationship between the two is as follows:

Essentially, we are taking a percentage of Simple M based on how 4️⃣ “full” the table is, assuming that a full table contains 10 players. So if a player has a simple M 4️⃣ of 10 on a 5-handed table, then he has an effective M of 5.

Let’s try a question to put everything 4️⃣ together.

Question – Effective stacks areR$1,000. Blinds areR$20/40 with antes ofR$2. We are 5 handed. Calculate simple M and effective M.

Okay, 4️⃣ hopefully, you should be able to do this on your own. The calculation is below:

Simple M

$1000 / ($20 +R$40 + 4️⃣ ($2 * 5))

$1000 / ($20 +R$40 +R$10)

$1000/R$70

Simple M = 14.3

Effective M

14.3 * (5/10)

14.3 * 0.5

Effective M = 7.15

So the next 4️⃣ time we are at the poker tables, let’s try to be aware of our M-ratio. Use it to help define 4️⃣ the strategy we will be using at any given stage of the tournament.

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